Betting Lines
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
| Money | FSU +118 ND -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +1 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -2.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -0.2 (+0.8) | 141.0 (+4.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -1.5 (-0.5) | 141.6 (+3.4) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -1.1 (-0.1) | 141.8 (+3.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -0.7 (+0.3) | 139.8 (+5.2) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | FSU 82 – 79 ND |
| Feb 5, 2025 | FSU 67 – 60 ND |
| Jan 13, 2024 | FSU 67 – 58 ND |
| Jan 18, 2023 | FSU 84 – 71 ND |
| Mar 3, 2022 | FSU 74 – 70 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 3-17 |
| Home | 5-11 | 11-8 |
| Away | 4-7 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#236) | -0.6 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.61 (#309) | 0.06 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#291) | 0.33 (#157) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#294) | 0.515 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 6.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 20.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 64.3% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 14.3% |
Game Analysis
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