Betting Lines
| Spread | MASS -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | CCU +130 MASS -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCU +3 | 185 | Won |
| Massey | MASS -1.7 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (+33.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MASS -1.8 (+4.8) | 146.0 (+39.0) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCU -0.2 (+2.8) | 144.4 (+40.6) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MASS -0.4 (+3.4) | 146.2 (+38.8) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MASS -0.2 (+3.2) | 146.9 (+38.1) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCU | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-5 | 11-5 |
| Away | 10-7 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 78.8 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#245) | -0.5 (#174) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#197) | 0.09 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#211) | 0.02 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#186) | 0.505 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCU | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.5% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 33.0% |
Game Analysis
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