Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | GAST -205 NIU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIU +1 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | GAST -4.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (+9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -4.6 (-5.6) | 137.2 (+11.8) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -4.4 (-5.4) | 135.2 (+13.8) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -3.8 (-4.8) | 135.9 (+13.1) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -4.9 (-5.9) | 136.9 (+12.1) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 17, 2023 | NIU 70 – 64 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 4-14 |
| Home | 7-7 | 6-7 |
| Away | 3-12 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 78.9 |
| Massey | -7.7 (#287) | -9.3 (#303) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#263) | -1.35 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#263) | -1.84 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#272) | 0.442 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.3% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 30.0% |
Game Analysis
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