Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | GAST -225 NIU +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIU +6 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | GAST -13.3 (-19.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.3 (-26.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -7.1 (-13.1) | 152.5 (-18.5) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -9.0 (-15.0) | 153.5 (-19.5) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -7.9 (-13.9) | 157.1 (-23.1) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | NIU 75 – 74 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-5 | 5-9 |
| Away | 5-11 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 79.2 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#93) | 0.4 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#163) | 0.32 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#172) | 0.53 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.342 (#288) | 0.521 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 61.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.5% | 15.3% |
Game Analysis
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