Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | USA -175 BUF +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +12 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | BUF -0.1 (+12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (+1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -1.3 (+10.7) | 142.0 (+8.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | USA -4.1 (+7.9) | 142.2 (+7.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | USA -1.9 (+10.1) | 139.5 (+10.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -1.5 (+10.5) | 140.2 (+9.8) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 11, 2023 | USA 70 – 56 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-4 | 7-8 |
| Away | 8-7 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#224) | -0.7 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#149) | 0.12 (#153) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#166) | 0.22 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#154) | 0.506 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 31.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.4% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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