Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | ULM +180 BALL -218 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +5 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | BALL -3.2 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (-5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -3.0 (-2.0) | 138.9 (+2.1) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -2.7 (-2.3) | 135.3 (+5.7) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -2.4 (-2.6) | 137.3 (+3.7) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -1.6 (-3.4) | 139.6 (+1.4) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 7-11 |
| Home | 3-10 | 7-7 |
| Away | 1-15 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L8 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.4 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -15.9 (#353) | -9.7 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.30 (#359) | -1.74 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.06 (#359) | -2.36 (#320) |
| RPI | 0.369 (#359) | 0.409 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.1% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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