Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -1350 SYR +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +13 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -12.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (-20.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -11.8 (+1.2) | 149.3 (-18.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -12.1 (+0.9) | 147.8 (-16.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -11.7 (+1.3) | 149.7 (-18.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -13.9 (-0.9) | 150.0 (-19.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2025 | SYR 84 – 70 UVA |
| Dec 2, 2023 | UVA 84 – 62 SYR |
| Jan 31, 2023 | UVA 67 – 62 SYR |
| Jan 7, 2023 | UVA 73 – 66 SYR |
| Jan 1, 2022 | UVA 74 – 69 SYR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-6 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 6-12 |
| Home | 16-1 | 12-6 |
| Away | 8-2 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 18.0 (#25) | 8.9 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.22 (#19) | 1.09 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.12 (#18) | 1.64 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#25) | 0.535 (#102) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 41.6 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 40.0% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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