Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -1000 SYR +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +7 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -14.4 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.2 (+10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -11.6 (-4.6) | 131.8 (+7.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -10.7 (-3.7) | 129.7 (+9.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -11.6 (-4.6) | 132.1 (+6.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -12.0 (-5.0) | 134.1 (+4.9) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | UVA 72 – 59 SYR |
| Mar 9, 2025 | SYR 84 – 70 UVA |
| Dec 2, 2023 | UVA 84 – 62 SYR |
| Jan 31, 2023 | UVA 67 – 62 SYR |
| Jan 1, 2022 | UVA 74 – 69 SYR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-1 | 11-7 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.5 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#24) | 2.4 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.53 (#21) | 0.30 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.35 (#14) | 0.51 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#28) | 0.510 (#156) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 15.1% |
Game Analysis
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