Betting Lines
| Spread | SYR -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SYR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +5 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | SYR -5.9 (-10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SYR -4.1 (-9.1) | 136.1 (+6.9) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SYR -3.7 (-8.7) | 134.8 (+8.2) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SYR -5.3 (-10.3) | 135.7 (+7.3) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SYR -4.4 (-9.4) | 136.1 (+6.9) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | UVA 72 – 59 SYR |
| Mar 9, 2025 | SYR 84 – 70 UVA |
| Dec 2, 2023 | UVA 84 – 62 SYR |
| Jan 31, 2023 | UVA 67 – 62 SYR |
| Jan 7, 2023 | UVA 73 – 66 SYR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SYR | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-5 | 11-7 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 60.1 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#86) | 4.6 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#101) | 0.23 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#120) | 0.76 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#92) | 0.500 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SYR | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 14.9% |
Game Analysis
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