Betting Lines
| Spread | SYR -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | SYR -115 UVA -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SYR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SYR +14 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | SYR -1.7 (+12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (+15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SYR -0.9 (+13.1) | 138.6 (+15.4) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SYR -1.3 (+12.7) | 139.8 (+14.2) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SYR -1.3 (+12.7) | 138.7 (+15.3) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SYR -0.7 (+13.3) | 139.5 (+14.5) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | UVA 72 – 59 SYR |
| Dec 2, 2023 | UVA 84 – 62 SYR |
| Jan 31, 2023 | UVA 67 – 62 SYR |
| Jan 7, 2023 | UVA 73 – 66 SYR |
| Jan 1, 2022 | UVA 74 – 69 SYR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SYR | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-6 | 10-7 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.8 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#122) | 4.3 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#151) | 0.99 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#135) | 1.36 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#177) | 0.536 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SYR | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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