Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -800 SYR +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +22 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -11.7 (+10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.9 (+23.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -9.0 (+13.0) | 128.6 (+17.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -7.7 (+14.3) | 127.4 (+18.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -7.3 (+14.7) | 128.4 (+17.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -8.2 (+13.8) | 127.9 (+18.1) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | UVA 72 – 59 SYR |
| Mar 9, 2025 | SYR 84 – 70 UVA |
| Jan 31, 2023 | UVA 67 – 62 SYR |
| Jan 7, 2023 | UVA 73 – 66 SYR |
| Jan 1, 2022 | UVA 74 – 69 SYR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.9 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.8 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#54) | 3.0 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#46) | 1.19 (#88) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.58 (#56) | 1.89 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#47) | 0.600 (#55) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.9% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.1% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 63.5% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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