Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | TROY +124 AKR -148 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +10 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -6.4 (+16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.8 (-21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -3.3 (+13.3) | 155.8 (-7.8) | 28% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | AKR -2.8 (+12.8) | 157.1 (-9.1) | 36% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | AKR -4.4 (+14.4) | 156.3 (-8.3) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -3.8 (+13.8) | 156.4 (-8.4) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 17-1 |
| Home | 10-3 | 15-0 |
| Away | 9-7 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 86.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#143) | 10.7 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#104) | 1.88 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#150) | 2.19 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#79) | 0.593 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 50.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 58.8% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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