Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | SAM -110 MER -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +20 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | MER -3.5 (+23.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.0 (-44.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -2.6 (+22.6) | 156.3 (-38.3) | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -1.4 (+21.4) | 156.4 (-38.4) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -1.5 (+21.5) | 153.4 (-35.4) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MER -1.8 (+21.8) | 155.1 (-37.1) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MER 89 – 86 SAM |
| Feb 6, 2025 | SAM 100 – 79 MER |
| Jan 16, 2025 | SAM 75 – 74 MER |
| Mar 9, 2024 | SAM 70 – 57 MER |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MER 88 – 84 SAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-3 | 14-1 |
| Away | 6-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 77.8 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#247) | 1.2 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#250) | 0.07 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#257) | 0.05 (#160) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#236) | 0.539 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.63 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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