Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | SAM -700 MER +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +21 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -11.7 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.0 (+15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -10.9 (+10.1) | 157.9 (+21.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -12.7 (+8.3) | 155.5 (+23.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -10.2 (+10.8) | 154.5 (+24.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -10.8 (+10.2) | 154.6 (+24.4) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MER 89 – 86 SAM |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SAM 69 – 49 MER |
| Jan 16, 2025 | SAM 75 – 74 MER |
| Mar 9, 2024 | SAM 70 – 57 MER |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MER 88 – 84 SAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-3 | 7-6 |
| Away | 9-7 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#103) | -3.8 (#227) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#82) | -0.61 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#86) | -1.00 (#236) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#73) | 0.463 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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