Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | MER -185 SAM +154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +3 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | MER -5.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.7 (+16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -2.9 (+0.1) | 148.9 (+26.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -3.6 (-0.6) | 148.3 (+26.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -3.1 (-0.1) | 150.3 (+24.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -3.8 (-0.8) | 150.3 (+24.7) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | SAM 69 – 49 MER |
| Feb 6, 2025 | SAM 100 – 79 MER |
| Jan 16, 2025 | SAM 75 – 74 MER |
| Mar 9, 2024 | SAM 70 – 57 MER |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MER 88 – 84 SAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-1 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-11 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.8 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#170) | -3.0 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#185) | -0.38 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#180) | -0.55 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#115) | 0.503 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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