Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | MER +350 SAM -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +4 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -10.4 (+14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (+20.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -9.3 (+13.3) | 148.8 (+23.2) | 21% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -8.3 (+12.3) | 147.2 (+24.8) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -10.4 (+14.4) | 146.6 (+25.4) | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -9.0 (+13.0) | 148.0 (+24.0) | 20% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MER 89 – 86 SAM |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SAM 69 – 49 MER |
| Feb 6, 2025 | SAM 100 – 79 MER |
| Jan 16, 2025 | SAM 75 – 74 MER |
| Mar 9, 2024 | SAM 70 – 57 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 15-3 |
| Home | 10-6 | 18-0 |
| Away | 4-9 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 84.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#259) | 8.9 (#64) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#252) | 2.42 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#266) | 2.57 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#244) | 0.596 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 40.9% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 57.6% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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