Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Under |
| Money | MER +195 SAM -230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +1 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | SAM -5.6 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 173.6 (-24.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -5.3 (+4.3) | 161.7 (-12.7) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -5.9 (+4.9) | 160.8 (-11.8) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -4.7 (+3.7) | 161.9 (-12.9) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -4.4 (+3.4) | 161.1 (-12.1) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MER 89 – 86 SAM |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SAM 69 – 49 MER |
| Feb 6, 2025 | SAM 100 – 79 MER |
| Mar 9, 2024 | SAM 70 – 57 MER |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MER 88 – 84 SAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-6 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-11 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#245) | 4.8 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#232) | 1.52 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#241) | 1.76 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#240) | 0.545 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 57.5% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 64.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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