Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | SAM -450 MER +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +13 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -10.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.9 (-28.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -7.8 (+5.2) | 154.4 (-27.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -8.2 (+4.8) | 152.5 (-25.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -8.0 (+5.0) | 153.3 (-26.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -8.1 (+4.9) | 153.4 (-26.4) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MER 89 – 86 SAM |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SAM 69 – 49 MER |
| Feb 6, 2025 | SAM 100 – 79 MER |
| Jan 16, 2025 | SAM 75 – 74 MER |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MER 88 – 84 SAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 18-0 | 10-6 |
| Away | 8-5 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.5 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#82) | -2.9 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#52) | -0.18 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#67) | -0.38 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#36) | 0.490 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.