Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | ORST +1200 GONZ -2400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +20 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -22.2 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (-7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -14.4 (-5.6) | 143.7 (-1.7) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -13.3 (-6.7) | 150.5 (-8.5) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -16.4 (-3.6) | 144.8 (-2.8) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -15.8 (-4.2) | 142.8 (-0.8) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | GONZ 65 – 56 ORST |
| Jan 29, 2025 | GONZ 98 – 60 ORST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | ORST 97 – 89 GONZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 31-4 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 16-2 |
| Home | 12-5 | 15-0 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 84.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 66.2 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#208) | 22.7 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#144) | 3.73 (#11) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#154) | 4.77 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#158) | 0.626 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 51.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 41.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 36.1% |
| FT Rate | 34.2% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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