Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | TEX -575 MISS +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +11 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | TEX -9.6 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (-2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -11.7 (-0.7) | 145.8 (+1.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | TEX -10.2 (+0.8) | 145.0 (+2.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | TEX -9.3 (+1.7) | 143.9 (+3.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -9.6 (+1.4) | 144.6 (+2.4) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | MISS 76 – 66 TEX |
| Jan 30, 2025 | MISS 72 – 69 TEX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 15-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-5 | 7-9 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.7 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 14.7 (#36) | 8.1 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#50) | 1.16 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.14 (#36) | 1.52 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#81) | 0.533 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 35.2% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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