Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | NAVY -230 AMER +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +9 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -7.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (+18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -6.1 (+2.9) | 132.0 (+23.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -6.9 (+2.1) | 130.6 (+24.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -6.2 (+2.8) | 131.8 (+23.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -6.1 (+2.9) | 133.6 (+21.4) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 13, 2026 | AMER 65 – 51 NAVY |
| Mar 12, 2025 | AMER 74 – 52 NAVY |
| Feb 27, 2025 | NAVY 68 – 60 AMER |
| Jan 3, 2025 | NAVY 81 – 58 AMER |
| Mar 2, 2024 | NAVY 71 – 65 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 10-5 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#176) | -5.5 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#181) | -1.01 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#205) | -1.16 (#252) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#193) | 0.468 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 31.9% |
Game Analysis
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