Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | NAVY +115 AMER -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +23 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -0.2 (+23.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (-9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -0.5 (+22.5) | 143.2 (-4.2) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -1.7 (+21.3) | 142.9 (-3.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -0.1 (+23.1) | 142.4 (-3.4) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -0.2 (+22.8) | 143.6 (-4.6) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | NAVY 82 – 73 AMER |
| Jan 13, 2026 | AMER 65 – 51 NAVY |
| Mar 12, 2025 | AMER 74 – 52 NAVY |
| Feb 27, 2025 | NAVY 68 – 60 AMER |
| Mar 2, 2024 | NAVY 71 – 65 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 9-5 | 14-2 |
| Away | 6-12 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -10.5 (#332) | -6.2 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.98 (#349) | -0.43 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.78 (#346) | -0.50 (#206) |
| RPI | 0.320 (#364) | 0.489 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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