Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | AMER -185 NAVY +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +22 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -4.0 (+18.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.5 (-10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -3.1 (+18.9) | 135.1 (-9.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -3.3 (+18.7) | 135.1 (-9.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -3.5 (+18.5) | 134.7 (-8.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -3.3 (+18.7) | 133.6 (-7.6) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | NAVY 82 – 73 AMER |
| Jan 13, 2026 | AMER 65 – 51 NAVY |
| Feb 27, 2025 | NAVY 68 – 60 AMER |
| Jan 3, 2025 | NAVY 81 – 58 AMER |
| Mar 2, 2024 | NAVY 71 – 65 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-2 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#253) | -6.1 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#196) | -1.22 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#211) | -1.46 (#276) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#136) | 0.447 (#288) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.