Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | AMER -300 NAVY +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +6 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | AMER -7.6 (-13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.6 (+3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -4.3 (-10.3) | 131.2 (+4.8) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -5.7 (-11.7) | 130.4 (+5.6) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -5.4 (-11.4) | 131.5 (+4.5) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -5.7 (-11.7) | 132.2 (+3.8) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | NAVY 82 – 73 AMER |
| Jan 13, 2026 | AMER 65 – 51 NAVY |
| Mar 12, 2025 | AMER 74 – 52 NAVY |
| Feb 27, 2025 | NAVY 68 – 60 AMER |
| Jan 3, 2025 | NAVY 81 – 58 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-7 | 10-5 |
| Away | 8-9 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#265) | -9.3 (#317) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#303) | -2.21 (#339) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.52 (#295) | -2.68 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#300) | 0.393 (#343) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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