Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | AMER -190 NAVY +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +8 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | AMER -4.9 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (-8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -4.8 (-12.8) | 134.3 (-6.3) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -4.3 (-12.3) | 134.3 (-6.3) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -4.6 (-12.6) | 133.2 (-5.2) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -5.0 (-13.0) | 133.3 (-5.3) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | NAVY 82 – 73 AMER |
| Jan 13, 2026 | AMER 65 – 51 NAVY |
| Mar 12, 2025 | AMER 74 – 52 NAVY |
| Jan 3, 2025 | NAVY 81 – 58 AMER |
| Mar 2, 2024 | NAVY 71 – 65 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-2 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#257) | -7.3 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#202) | -1.64 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#213) | -1.89 (#304) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#149) | 0.417 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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