Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | AMER +136 NAVY -162 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +14 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -0.6 (+14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (-28.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -0.9 (+14.9) | 138.7 (-22.7) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -0.5 (+13.5) | 138.1 (-22.1) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -1.0 (+15.0) | 138.9 (-22.9) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -1.8 (+15.8) | 139.6 (-23.6) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | NAVY 82 – 73 AMER |
| Mar 12, 2025 | AMER 74 – 52 NAVY |
| Feb 27, 2025 | NAVY 68 – 60 AMER |
| Jan 3, 2025 | NAVY 81 – 58 AMER |
| Mar 2, 2024 | NAVY 71 – 65 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 17-1 |
| Home | 11-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-10 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#249) | -1.5 (#192) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#243) | -0.23 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#252) | -0.55 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#245) | 0.479 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 29.1 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.8% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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