Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | ISU -1600 BAY +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +3 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -15.2 (-12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.7 (-18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -15.2 (-12.2) | 155.3 (-14.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -13.3 (-10.3) | 152.1 (-11.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -14.4 (-11.4) | 153.5 (-12.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -14.4 (-11.4) | 155.6 (-14.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | ISU 70 – 60 BAY |
| Jan 4, 2025 | ISU 74 – 55 BAY |
| Mar 16, 2024 | ISU 76 – 62 BAY |
| Feb 4, 2024 | BAY 70 – 68 ISU |
| Mar 9, 2023 | ISU 78 – 72 BAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.0 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 24.8 (#4) | 12.6 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.14 (#7) | 1.71 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.09 (#8) | 2.47 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.639 (#13) | 0.551 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.3% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 41.2% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.74 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.0% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 37.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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