Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | ISU -125 BAY +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +14 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -1.4 (+12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (-5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -1.2 (+12.8) | 138.6 (-0.6) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -0.3 (+13.7) | 137.2 (+0.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -1.5 (+12.5) | 138.5 (-0.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -1.8 (+12.2) | 137.2 (+0.8) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | ISU 72 – 69 BAY |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ISU 70 – 60 BAY |
| Jan 4, 2025 | ISU 74 – 55 BAY |
| Feb 4, 2024 | BAY 70 – 68 ISU |
| Mar 9, 2023 | ISU 78 – 72 BAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 18-0 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-5 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.5 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 19.0 (#6) | 17.6 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.77 (#7) | 2.49 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.22 (#11) | 3.06 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#21) | 0.601 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.2% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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