Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
| Money | BAY -190 ISU +158 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +6 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -1.6 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.8 (+18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -1.4 (-7.4) | 132.5 (+17.5) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -2.3 (-8.3) | 131.0 (+19.0) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -2.0 (-8.0) | 132.0 (+18.0) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -2.0 (-8.0) | 132.9 (+17.1) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | ISU 72 – 69 BAY |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ISU 70 – 60 BAY |
| Jan 4, 2025 | ISU 74 – 55 BAY |
| Mar 16, 2024 | ISU 76 – 62 BAY |
| Feb 4, 2024 | BAY 70 – 68 ISU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 62.6 |
| Massey | 15.1 (#13) | 13.5 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.86 (#8) | 2.18 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.43 (#10) | 2.83 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.613 (#13) | 0.556 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 25.1% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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