Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | BAY -200 ISU +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +2 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -1.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (-15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -2.5 (-0.5) | 150.9 (-12.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -3.9 (-1.9) | 145.6 (-7.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -2.7 (-0.7) | 149.6 (-11.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -2.1 (-0.1) | 148.5 (-10.5) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | ISU 72 – 69 BAY |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ISU 70 – 60 BAY |
| Jan 4, 2025 | ISU 74 – 55 BAY |
| Mar 16, 2024 | ISU 76 – 62 BAY |
| Mar 9, 2023 | ISU 78 – 72 BAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 15-2 | 18-0 |
| Away | 4-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 61.5 |
| Massey | 16.9 (#11) | 19.2 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#26) | 2.38 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.83 (#23) | 2.68 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#28) | 0.597 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 41.2% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 26.3% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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