Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | ISU -400 BAY +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +19 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -5.4 (+13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.1 (-31.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -5.7 (+13.3) | 154.1 (-25.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -5.5 (+13.5) | 149.9 (-20.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -7.0 (+12.0) | 154.6 (-25.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -6.0 (+13.0) | 153.9 (-24.9) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | ISU 72 – 69 BAY |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ISU 70 – 60 BAY |
| Mar 16, 2024 | ISU 76 – 62 BAY |
| Feb 4, 2024 | BAY 70 – 68 ISU |
| Mar 9, 2023 | ISU 78 – 72 BAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.3 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 19.4 (#8) | 18.1 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.37 (#4) | 2.64 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.14 (#2) | 3.41 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.613 (#33) | 0.615 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 13.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.83 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 38.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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