Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | BAY +164 ISU -198 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +10 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | ISU -6.5 (-3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.5 (-39.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -6.5 (-3.5) | 156.3 (-26.3) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -2.6 (-7.4) | 156.6 (-26.6) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -4.9 (-5.1) | 155.9 (-25.9) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -4.7 (-5.3) | 154.7 (-24.7) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | ISU 72 – 69 BAY |
| Jan 4, 2025 | ISU 74 – 55 BAY |
| Mar 16, 2024 | ISU 76 – 62 BAY |
| Feb 4, 2024 | BAY 70 – 68 ISU |
| Mar 9, 2023 | ISU 78 – 72 BAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-6 | 16-1 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 82.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 14.5 (#34) | 24.8 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#66) | 5.48 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.58 (#56) | 8.79 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#95) | 0.625 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 53.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 41.9% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 1.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 60.7% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 41.1% | 38.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 25.1% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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