Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | GTWN +130 VILL -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +7 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -5.9 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -3.0 (-4.0) | 138.0 (+15.0) | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -4.4 (-2.6) | 140.2 (+12.8) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -4.0 (-3.0) | 139.4 (+13.6) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -3.3 (-3.7) | 138.6 (+14.4) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | GTWN 78 – 64 VILL |
| Jan 22, 2026 | VILL 66 – 51 GTWN |
| Mar 5, 2025 | GTWN 75 – 73 VILL |
| Jan 20, 2025 | GTWN 64 – 63 VILL |
| Feb 27, 2024 | VILL 75 – 47 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 15-5 |
| Home | 10-7 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#97) | 14.6 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#77) | 2.70 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#72) | 3.55 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#101) | 0.614 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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