Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | GTWN +190 VILL -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GTWN +2 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -1.3 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (+9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -1.1 (+3.1) | 138.7 (+9.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -1.9 (+3.9) | 137.6 (+10.4) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -0.4 (+2.4) | 139.1 (+8.9) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -0.8 (+2.8) | 140.1 (+7.9) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | GTWN 78 – 64 VILL |
| Feb 7, 2026 | VILL 80 – 73 GTWN |
| Jan 22, 2026 | VILL 66 – 51 GTWN |
| Jan 20, 2025 | GTWN 64 – 63 VILL |
| Feb 27, 2024 | VILL 75 – 47 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-5 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#82) | 11.4 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#109) | 1.25 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#101) | 1.85 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#183) | 0.525 (#132) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 40.3% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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