Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | VILL -1600 GTWN +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +28 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -16.8 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (-20.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -14.1 (+13.9) | 141.2 (-19.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -14.5 (+13.5) | 142.7 (-20.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -15.2 (+12.8) | 142.8 (-20.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -14.8 (+13.2) | 142.6 (-20.6) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | GTWN 78 – 64 VILL |
| Feb 7, 2026 | VILL 80 – 73 GTWN |
| Jan 22, 2026 | VILL 66 – 51 GTWN |
| Mar 5, 2025 | GTWN 75 – 73 VILL |
| Jan 20, 2025 | GTWN 64 – 63 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 2-18 |
| Home | 10-6 | 7-12 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 12.2 (#36) | -1.2 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#73) | -0.56 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#59) | -0.43 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#80) | 0.452 (#273) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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