Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | VILL -360 GTWN +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GTWN +1 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -7.2 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (-13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -6.0 (-7.0) | 137.9 (-10.9) | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -8.9 (-9.9) | 135.4 (-8.4) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -7.0 (-8.0) | 135.9 (-8.9) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -6.3 (-7.3) | 139.3 (-12.3) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | GTWN 78 – 64 VILL |
| Feb 7, 2026 | VILL 80 – 73 GTWN |
| Jan 22, 2026 | VILL 66 – 51 GTWN |
| Mar 5, 2025 | GTWN 75 – 73 VILL |
| Feb 27, 2024 | VILL 75 – 47 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 8-12 |
| Home | 14-3 | 14-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 11.0 (#55) | 7.3 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#98) | 0.93 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.34 (#88) | 1.15 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#105) | 0.533 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 40.3% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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