Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | VILL -325 GTWN +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GTWN +14 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -7.7 (-21.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (-1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -8.8 (-22.8) | 141.2 (+0.8) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -9.1 (-23.1) | 140.0 (+2.0) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -8.0 (-22.0) | 141.9 (+0.1) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -9.0 (-23.0) | 141.9 (+0.1) | 81% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | VILL 80 – 73 GTWN |
| Jan 22, 2026 | VILL 66 – 51 GTWN |
| Mar 5, 2025 | GTWN 75 – 73 VILL |
| Jan 20, 2025 | GTWN 64 – 63 VILL |
| Feb 27, 2024 | VILL 75 – 47 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 6-14 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-7 |
| Away | 9-3 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 14.1 (#39) | 6.4 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.91 (#23) | 1.02 (#90) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.61 (#23) | 1.47 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.607 (#25) | 0.515 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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