Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | PROV -205 DEP +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +18 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -6.3 (+11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -5.1 (+12.9) | 154.7 (+7.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -5.6 (+12.4) | 155.6 (+6.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -5.2 (+12.8) | 151.0 (+11.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -5.2 (+12.8) | 151.9 (+10.1) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | PROV 71 – 68 DEP |
| Mar 5, 2025 | DEP 80 – 77 PROV |
| Dec 11, 2024 | PROV 70 – 63 DEP |
| Feb 18, 2024 | PROV 81 – 70 DEP |
| Jan 18, 2024 | PROV 100 – 62 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-6 | 11-7 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.3 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.0 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#74) | 5.0 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#98) | 0.75 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#86) | 1.11 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#164) | 0.493 (#200) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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