Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | PROV -380 DEP +290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEP +3 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | PROV -6.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (+11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -5.9 (-8.9) | 145.4 (+11.6) | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -8.3 (-11.3) | 146.7 (+10.3) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -5.9 (-8.9) | 146.3 (+10.7) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -6.5 (-9.5) | 145.9 (+11.1) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | PROV 71 – 68 DEP |
| Feb 7, 2026 | PROV 90 – 72 DEP |
| Dec 11, 2024 | PROV 70 – 63 DEP |
| Feb 18, 2024 | PROV 81 – 70 DEP |
| Jan 18, 2024 | PROV 100 – 62 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 14-20 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 4-16 |
| Home | 10-6 | 11-8 |
| Away | 2-9 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L6 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#93) | 2.8 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#133) | -0.29 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#107) | -0.02 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#180) | 0.441 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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