Betting Lines
| Spread | DEP -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | DEP -155 PROV +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +3 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | PROV -0.3 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.9 (-25.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEP -1.6 (-4.6) | 153.3 (-14.3) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEP -0.8 (-3.8) | 153.0 (-14.0) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEP -1.4 (-4.4) | 157.6 (-18.6) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DEP -1.5 (-4.5) | 154.1 (-15.1) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | PROV 90 – 72 DEP |
| Mar 5, 2025 | DEP 80 – 77 PROV |
| Dec 11, 2024 | PROV 70 – 63 DEP |
| Feb 18, 2024 | PROV 81 – 70 DEP |
| Jan 18, 2024 | PROV 100 – 62 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 7-13 |
| Home | 11-7 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 85.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 84.0 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#100) | 8.6 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#91) | 0.79 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#90) | 1.44 (#88) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#188) | 0.493 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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