Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | DEP +350 PROV -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +38 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | PROV -12.2 (-25.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (+26.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -11.6 (-26.4) | 139.2 (+22.8) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -12.5 (-25.5) | 139.0 (+23.0) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -13.4 (-24.6) | 139.9 (+22.1) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -13.0 (-25.0) | 139.2 (+22.8) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | PROV 71 – 68 DEP |
| Feb 7, 2026 | PROV 90 – 72 DEP |
| Mar 5, 2025 | DEP 80 – 77 PROV |
| Dec 11, 2024 | PROV 70 – 63 DEP |
| Feb 18, 2024 | PROV 81 – 70 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-29 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 0-20 | 10-10 |
| Home | 3-15 | 14-5 |
| Away | 0-11 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L20 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 68.8 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#287) | 9.2 (#58) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#307) | 1.48 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#296) | 2.18 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#265) | 0.570 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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