Betting Lines
| Spread | DEP -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | DEP -130 PROV +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +7 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | DEP -9.0 (-16.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEP -6.5 (-13.5) | 136.9 (-3.9) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEP -2.8 (-9.8) | 140.7 (-7.7) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEP -5.0 (-12.0) | 136.6 (-3.6) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DEP -6.4 (-13.4) | 137.4 (-4.4) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | PROV 71 – 68 DEP |
| Feb 7, 2026 | PROV 90 – 72 DEP |
| Mar 5, 2025 | DEP 80 – 77 PROV |
| Feb 18, 2024 | PROV 81 – 70 DEP |
| Jan 18, 2024 | PROV 100 – 62 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-20 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 6-14 |
| Home | 11-8 | 10-6 |
| Away | 2-10 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#56) | 5.1 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#108) | 0.84 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#111) | 1.13 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#143) | 0.562 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 40.6 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.8% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.4% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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