Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | PROV -8000 DEP +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +11 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -22.8 (-11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (+11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -17.6 (-6.6) | 140.1 (+10.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -17.7 (-6.7) | 143.5 (+7.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -19.9 (-8.9) | 142.7 (+8.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -19.5 (-8.5) | 141.9 (+9.1) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | PROV 71 – 68 DEP |
| Feb 7, 2026 | PROV 90 – 72 DEP |
| Mar 5, 2025 | DEP 80 – 77 PROV |
| Dec 11, 2024 | PROV 70 – 63 DEP |
| Jan 18, 2024 | PROV 100 – 62 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 3-29 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 0-20 |
| Home | 14-5 | 3-15 |
| Away | 4-7 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L20 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 81.8 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#51) | -9.1 (#311) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#59) | -1.70 (#320) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#55) | -1.84 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#83) | 0.437 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 29.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 21.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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