Betting Lines
| Spread | UND -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | UND -162 DEN +136 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +19 | 177 | Lost |
| Massey | UND -0.8 (-19.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.1 (+10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UND -0.9 (-19.9) | 157.4 (+19.6) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UND -1.8 (-20.8) | 153.5 (+23.5) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UND -1.7 (-20.7) | 154.8 (+22.2) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UND -1.6 (-20.6) | 158.5 (+18.5) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UND 83 – 67 DEN |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UND 93 – 86 DEN |
| Feb 14, 2025 | DEN 68 – 64 UND |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UND 95 – 70 DEN |
| Feb 16, 2024 | UND 92 – 78 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 8-8 |
| Home | 9-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 7-8 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 84.0 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#274) | -5.0 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#234) | -1.04 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#255) | -1.39 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#224) | 0.457 (#251) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.9% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.8% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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