Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | DEN -125 UND +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UND +25 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | DEN -3.4 (-28.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.3 (+6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -1.0 (-26.0) | 154.5 (+10.5) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -0.1 (-25.1) | 152.0 (+13.0) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -1.4 (-26.4) | 152.3 (+12.7) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -1.3 (-26.3) | 153.7 (+11.3) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UND 83 – 67 DEN |
| Feb 7, 2026 | DEN 98 – 79 UND |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UND 93 – 86 DEN |
| Feb 14, 2025 | DEN 68 – 64 UND |
| Feb 16, 2024 | UND 92 – 78 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | UND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 5-11 |
| Home | 8-6 | 9-6 |
| Away | 3-12 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 82.2 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#301) | -7.9 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#315) | -1.76 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.97 (#337) | -2.40 (#320) |
| RPI | 0.376 (#349) | 0.391 (#342) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | UND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 57.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.5% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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