Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | DEN -225 UND +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UND +7 | 179 | Lost |
| Massey | DEN -6.6 (-13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.2 (+12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -4.3 (-11.3) | 155.7 (+23.3) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -4.0 (-11.0) | 152.2 (+26.8) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -4.2 (-11.2) | 154.0 (+25.0) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -3.7 (-10.7) | 155.7 (+23.3) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UND 83 – 67 DEN |
| Feb 7, 2026 | DEN 98 – 79 UND |
| Feb 14, 2025 | DEN 68 – 64 UND |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UND 95 – 70 DEN |
| Feb 16, 2024 | UND 92 – 78 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | UND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 10-6 |
| Home | 9-5 | 9-7 |
| Away | 6-11 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.3 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.0 | 79.6 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#239) | -8.0 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#249) | -1.17 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#261) | -1.58 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#257) | 0.457 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | UND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.0% | 57.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 63.7% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 33.5% |
Game Analysis
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