Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | UND +136 DEN -162 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UND +16 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | DEN -4.9 (+20.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.1 (-15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -3.0 (+19.0) | 156.9 (-6.9) | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -2.6 (+18.6) | 153.9 (-3.9) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -3.3 (+19.3) | 156.9 (-6.9) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -3.2 (+19.2) | 156.3 (-6.3) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | DEN 98 – 79 UND |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UND 93 – 86 DEN |
| Feb 14, 2025 | DEN 68 – 64 UND |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UND 95 – 70 DEN |
| Feb 16, 2024 | UND 92 – 78 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 8-8 |
| Home | 9-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 7-8 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 84.0 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#298) | -3.7 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#246) | -0.72 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.42 (#273) | -1.01 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#224) | 0.485 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.3% | 56.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.5% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.