Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | DEN -175 UND +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UND +14 | 170 | Lost |
| Massey | DEN -7.1 (-21.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.9 (+5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -3.8 (-17.8) | 162.0 (+8.0) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -2.6 (-16.6) | 158.9 (+11.1) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -3.6 (-17.6) | 157.4 (+12.6) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -3.9 (-17.9) | 158.5 (+11.5) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UND 83 – 67 DEN |
| Feb 7, 2026 | DEN 98 – 79 UND |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UND 93 – 86 DEN |
| Feb 14, 2025 | DEN 68 – 64 UND |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UND 95 – 70 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | UND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 10-6 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.1 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#199) | -5.5 (#270) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#251) | -0.61 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#243) | -0.79 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#238) | 0.456 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | UND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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