Betting Lines
| Spread | UND -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | UND -450 DEN +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +4 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | UND -7.5 (-11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.3 (-24.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UND -5.5 (-9.5) | 153.8 (-21.8) | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UND -6.1 (-10.1) | 151.1 (-19.1) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UND -5.7 (-9.7) | 149.9 (-17.9) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UND -5.4 (-9.4) | 152.6 (-20.6) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UND 83 – 67 DEN |
| Feb 7, 2026 | DEN 98 – 79 UND |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UND 93 – 86 DEN |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UND 95 – 70 DEN |
| Feb 16, 2024 | UND 92 – 78 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 5-11 |
| Home | 9-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 2-12 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.2 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#268) | -10.7 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.41 (#297) | -1.97 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.78 (#294) | -3.16 (#349) |
| RPI | 0.426 (#313) | 0.391 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.9% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 37.2% |
Game Analysis
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