Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | APP -340 EMU +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +5 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | APP -4.2 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.6 (-1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -5.2 (-0.2) | 130.4 (-5.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -6.2 (-1.2) | 126.9 (-1.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -5.7 (-0.7) | 126.9 (-1.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -4.6 (+0.4) | 131.0 (-6.0) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 7-7 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#192) | -2.8 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#173) | -0.63 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#193) | -0.70 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#156) | 0.456 (#253) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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